“There are some VCs who can predict instead of reacting. Not surprisingly, these are the most successful ones.”
Paul Graham
When it comes to investing in web3 projects, it is important to do your due diligence in order to minimize risk and maximize returns. There are a few key things to look for when evaluating a web3 investment: the team, the technology, the tokenomics, and the community.
The inspiration behind this is a tweet thread from Casey K. Caruso. Paul Graham has a great essay on angel investing in general that dovetails in here real nice.
“To be a good angel investor, you have to be a good judge of potential. That’s what it comes down to. VCs can be fast followers. Most of them don’t try to predict what will win. They just try to notice quickly when something already is winning. But angels have to be able to predict.”
Paul Graham
Founders
The most constant variable in the equation in the early stages is frequently the team. Find people you respect who are familiar with the founders and inquire about their strengths, weaknesses, and so on. Consider this: Would I work with this person? If so, that’s a good sign.
Opportunity Size
Consider the current market size and speculate on how large it could become. Be generous with your forecasts because crypto is one of the world’s fastest growing industries. Familiarize yourself with memetics and reflexivity theory.
Use it
Use whatever product is available. Despite its obviousness, this step is frequently overlooked. It will bring the use case, value proposition, and product offering to life. It’s also beneficial for the founder to have investors who are familiar with and use their product.
User Research
Speak with users. Use discord to accomplish this quickly. Inquire, “How did you hear about the product?” What were you previously using? How does it stack up against the competition? What are your thoughts on ROI and value? What would cause you to leave? NPS? Look for organic and long-lasting usage.
Data Analytics
Company data is kept private in web2. A large portion of project data in web3 is on-chain and accessible via products such as Dune Analytics. Make use of on-chain data. Look for top KPI growth rates (i.e. volume, TVL, wallets). In comparison to competitors, compare MoM or QoQ growth.
Timing
Many crypto ideas have been tried in the past. Consider how many different identity products we’ve seen. Timing is everything. Investigate why previous attempts failed. Consider why this time is different.
Community
Understanding the sentiment, quality, and durability of a community is critical. To evaluate the quality of members, join the community’s @discord and @telegram. Use http://twitteraudit.com to determine what percentage of Twitter followers are bots versus real people. Humans trump bots
Tokenomics
If there is a token, spend some time learning about the high level token mechanics. The most important consideration is how the token will capture value. Examine lockups, issuance rates, release schedules, faucets and sinks, growth loops, memes, and so on.
Competition
Determine who the top competitors are and how this project differs from them. Consider their moat today and how it scales. If they aren’t the market leader, develop a thesis explaining why they will be or why it isn’t a winner-take-all market.
Returns
According to @MessariCrypto, only 80 assets have a Y2050 marketcap (i.e. asset marketcap accounting for known issuance until 2050) of more than $1 billion. Check that the math makes sense.
Decisions must sometimes be made faster than you would like. Be willing to flex your diligence muscles, knowing that there is always more diligence that could be done. Prioritize and manage your time wisely. Don’t dismiss your instincts.
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